v0.9

Verify public predictions against real-world outcomes

Trackrecord.info aims to systematically compare public predictions against actual outcomes and publishes transparent accuracy metrics that reveal who truly gets it right over time.

Type a name to see matching tracked public figures. Select a suggestion or press Enter.

Live

Top 3 Forecasters

Based on all resolved predictions (minimum 2). Higher Brier Index is better.

As of 2026-08-01 · Pure mean Brier backend

Brier Index · 0–100 · Higher is better

Brier Index · 0–100 · Higher is better

Brier Index · 0–100 · Higher is better

n = 2

as of 2026-08-01

High-visibility predictions

Recent and notable claims

Concrete tracked predictions drawn from the public record. Status is determined solely by primary evidence against pre-defined resolution criteria.

Micah Richards

True

“Spain will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.”

Published: June 2026 Resolved: July 2026

Chris Sutton

True

“Argentina finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.”

Published: June 2026 Resolved: July 2026

Joachim Klement

False

“Portugal defeats England in the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.”

Published: June 2026 Resolved: July 2026

View the full public record

All tracked predictions, resolution criteria, primary evidence and scores are available on the predictions page.

Open predictions →

Data source: predictions_v2.jsonl and resolved_details.jsonl (last major resolution batch 2026-07-21).

How it works

A transparent, human-reviewed process

Public prediction is made

A forecaster shares a clear, falsifiable prediction publicly (on X, in media, podcasts, or official forecasts) with a verifiable source and time horizon.

Logged and prepared

Trackrecord.info records the prediction with source, timestamp, and resolution criteria. It is added to the public dataset as “Pending – Resolution-ready”.

Outcome resolved

On or after the expected date, a human reviewer confirms the actual result from primary/official sources and records it with rationale.

Scored and published

A transparent 0–100 accuracy score is calculated. Reports and forecaster metrics update automatically and remain permanently public.

Full details in METHODOLOGY.md. Everything is designed for transparency and repeatability.

Most public predictions disappear without accountability

Trackrecord.info aims to create a permanent, transparent record so that everyone can see who gets it right over time. Follow along for updates and new forecasters.